This paper discusses the introduction of system dynamics modeling and scenario planning into the planning process at Chevron. These techniques can help planners by providing an integrated, quantitative perspective, filling a gap between the detailed micro-analysis of spreadsheets and the holistic, but static forms of decision analysis. Specifically, system dynamics simulations can help planners to manage uncertainty and view the consequences of investment decisions in alternative futures.
In this paper we discuss lessons learned from the creation of a pilot simulation focused on gas asset management in Chevron’s Nigeria operations. We briefly look at the process by which we built the system dynamics model. We discuss possible ways these types of simulations might be used in the future at Chevron and in the oil & gas industry. Finally we close by presenting several key lessons learned from the pilot at Chevron that could contribute to the success of disseminating these methods across an organization.
Download the PDF article: Managing Gas Assets through Simulation and Scenario Planning
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