Monte Hall Problem
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Monte Hall Problem
By Michael Bean
- Sim path: http://forio.com/simulate/simulation/mbean/monte-hall-problem
- Sim access:Model and interface can be copied by other authors.
- Sim stats:This sim has been run 520 times.
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The Monty Hall problem is a probability puzzle based on the American television game show Let's Make a Deal.
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
Play this simulation and find out!
About the author
Michael Bean co-founded Forio Business Simulations, a software company specializing in developing web simulations, and leads Forio’s consulting activities. Before Forio, Michael held several senior management posts at simulation consulting and simulation software firms in the United States and Europe. Michael has been exclusively consulting on strategic simulation and decision-support engagements for twenty years.
Michael was also a research associate for the System Dynamics Group at MIT, where he developed simulations that examined the strategic implications of decision-making.
Michael has consulted with corporations and government agencies nationally and internationally on topics including transfer pricing, competitive strategy, emerging technologies, and customer migration. He has conducted scenario planning, systems thinking, and computer simulation seminars to corporations and government agencies worldwide. In addition, Michael has presented at national conferences on systems thinking and computer ...