The fossil fuel emissions of CO2, measured in billions of tons Carbon per year, from the Developed, Developing A, and Developing B country groups.
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Change these values to set future fossil fuel emissions as a percentage of 2005 emissions reached by 2050, with reductions starting in 2012. For example, "100" would be a 100% increase of 2005 emissions, i.e., a doubling. "0" would flatten at 2005 levels. "-80" would be a 80% decrease of 2005 levels by 2050.
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% Change of emissions, positive or negative, relative to the emissions in the Reference Year divided evenly across each of the years from the Start Year until the Target Year. For example, a value of "50" would increase emissions to 50% above the Reference levels starting in the Start Year and ending in the Target Year. "-80" would be an 80% decrease of Reference levels.
Note that the initial values for % Change (500) are set arbitrarily high so that the built-in "Business as Usual" scenario (BAU) can run unconstrained to create the initial baseline simulation run.
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This year sets the emissions target against which changes are measured.
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The year in which emissions reductions begin.
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The year in which the emissions targets expressed by the % Change, are met.
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Many of the most developed nations. US, EU (27 countries) plus Norway and Sweden, Russia and former Soviet States, Japan, Canada, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia.
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Many of the fastest developing and larger nations. China, India, South Africa, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, and other large developing Asian countries.
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Smaller developing countries in the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and Asia.
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Decrease to reduce deforestation and reduce CO2 land use emissions. This value is a "0-1" index for future "land use" emissions where a value of 1 yields constant emissions through 2050, 0 yields a 90% drop by 2050, and 0.5 yields a drop of 45%.
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CO2 land use emissions from deforestation.
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Increase to remove more CO2 from the atmosphere by growing trees. This value is a "0-1" index for the annual removal of CO2 from the atmosphere due to the creation of new forests, starting in 2009 and continuing until 2050. A value of 1 delivers the IPCC estimated maximum of 1.6 billion tons Carbon removed per year; 0.5 delivers half of the maximum.
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Annual removal of CO2 from the atmosphere due to the creation of new forests.
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For deforestation, this is a "0-1" index for future "land use" emissions where a value of 1 yields constant emissions through 2050, 0 yields a 90% drop by 2050, and .5 yields a drop of 45%. For afforestation, this is a "0-1" index for the annual removal of CO2 from the atmosphere due to the creation of new forests, starting in 2009 and continuing until 2050, where a value of 1 delivers the IPCC estimated maximum of 1.6 billion tons Carbon removed per year; .5 delivers half of the maximum.
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Atmospheric CO2 concentration in the year 2100, in parts per million.
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CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, in parts per million.
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Global average temperature change above the average pre-industrial level, in degrees Celsius.
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Global average temperature change by the year 2100, in degrees Celsius.
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Your goal for CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Shows up on "CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere" as a horizontal line. Many recommended goals range from 350 ppm to 450 ppm.
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The percent of the gap between the "business as usual" future CO2 concentration in 2100 and the "goal" future CO2 in 2100 that is closed by the scenario created. This assesses how close your scenario is to the goal for CO2. For example, 50 would be "halfway there," and 75 would be "three quarters of the way there."
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